Preliminary figures 2024: Amsterdam is hardly growing anymore

 

On January 30,  2025, CBS published the first, provisional, figures on Amsterdam's population development in 2024:

https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/37230ned/table?ts=1738323198498

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

​

 

Total inflow and outflow Amsterdam; settlers and leavers
In:            79,727

Out:         78,967

Balance  +760

 

Foreign migration (i.e. departure to and settlement from; this also includes a large group of Dutch people)  

In:            39,533

Out:         25,549 

Balance  +13,984

​

Domestic migration (including the departure of foreigners from Amsterdam to the rest of the Netherlands, and vice versa) 

In:            40,194

Out:         53,418

Balance  -13,224

 

Natural increase

Births:           9,724

Deaths:         5,989

Balance:       +3,735

 

Population growth due to migration surplus of 760 + birth surplus of + 3,735.

Population growth is therefore largely due to the birth surplus

 

Comments

• Population growth has almost stopped: from +11,000 in 2022, +13,000 in 2023 to + 760 in 2024
   

• Main cause: large decrease in foreign migration
  In 2024, 10,000 fewer people settled in Amsterdam: migration from abroad -7,000; from within the country -3,000
   

• Hardly any growth due to total migration balance (+760)
  
  Outcome of: 
  Migration balance with abroad: almost +14,000
  Migration balance with within the country: more than -13,000
  
  Positive migration balance with abroad has decreased drastically:
  2022: + 27,000; 2023: + 23,000; 2024: + 14,000
  Negative migration balance with within the country has increased slightly: 
  2022: - 16,000; 2023: -10,000; 2024: - 13,000

 

• The newspaper reports (Parool, AD) emphasize the positive migration balance with foreign countries; this would be the main cause of population growth. In principle, this is correct. However, if you look at the total migration balance (foreign and domestic), the birth surplus is greater.

 

• The growth in the population is largely due to the birth surplus
  See above

 

• For the first time in 10 years, the number of births has increased in 2024
  Since 2015, we have seen a slight decrease in the number of births in Amsterdam. From 11,103 in 2015 to 9,673 in 2023. In 2024, it has risen (slightly) for the first time: to 9,724.

 

The decline in the number of births was attributed by me mainly to the city becoming more expensive and exclusive, making it increasingly difficult for young people to stay in the city; they are forced or feel forced to leave the city even before they have children. See the conclusion from my research (17 September 2024):

 

​

Conclusion from the departure by age​​

Since 2008, significantly more twenty-somethings have left the city than thirty-somethings. Young people are finding it increasingly difficult to stay in the city and nowadays often leave Amsterdam before they can start forming a family

From: 

​

 

• Research question: what is the background to this?
  Whether this is a trend break; we can only see in a few years.

Additional

• Research question: has the number of foreign settlements around Amsterdam increased (significantly) in 2024? In other words: are people now ending up there? 

 

The figures that have now been published concern the so-called corop regions. Amsterdam is part of Greater Amsterdam, just like Aalsmeer, Amstelveen, Diemen, Haarlemmermeer, Ouder Amstel and Uithoorn, together around 1.5 million inhabitants. Considerably smaller than the MRA, the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area, with 30 municipalities and around 2.5 million inhabitants.

 

Figures Greater Amsterdam as of January 1 (provisional) 

                                               2022                2023                2024               2025

Number of inhabitants           1,411,057       1,456,187       1,472,793       1,482,765

            Development                         + 45,130         + 16,606          +9,972

            Of which Amsterdam             + 35,484         +13,181           +4,495

 

Settlement from abroad

            Number                        47,412            67,313             59,217             50,773            

            Of which Amsterdam   37,114            49,516             45,956             39,533

 

​

Preliminary conclusion

The figures for Greater Amsterdam do not provide clear reason for the assumption that the growth in the number of inhabitants and the inflow from abroad has shifted from Amsterdam to the surrounding municipalities of Greater Amsterdam. The number of settlements from abroad will have fallen faster in Greater Amsterdam than in Amsterdam in 2024. 
Further research should show whether this also applies to other parts of the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (Haarlem, IJmond, Gooi, Zaanstreek-Purmerend, Almere Lelystad).

​

​

Jaap Draaisma, 

Researcher HvA

Amsterdam February 3 - May 7, 2025