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The Amsterdam housing market, the figures

Taken from the report “Looking for the key; how do we retain key professions for the city”, chapter 4.1: by Jaap Draaisma

https://www.hva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/urban-governance/2023/op-zoek-naar-de- key_hoe-reserven-we- key professions-for-de-stad_2023.pdf


This presentation is largely based on the Living in Amsterdam (WiA) 2021 study and the Living in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (WiMRA) 2021 study.

Due to the series of proposed measures by the government, the increased inflation and the rapidly rising mortgage interest, the housing market is now in a state of flux and the situation may change significantly in the near future.

Below we show, in addition to the figures for Amsterdam, those of the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (AMA). In addition to Amsterdam, the MRA includes: Diemen, Almere and Lelystad, 't Gooi, the Zaanstreek, Waterland, IJmond, Haarlem, Amstelland and the Haarlemmermeer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The different sectors of the housing market

 

   Social housing corporations
All independent homes with a rent below the €763 (basic) rental limit (amount as of 2022; as of 1-1-2023 this limit is 808 euros/month).


  Social rental market parties
All independent homes with a rent below €808 (basic) rent limit (amount as of 2023). So also the homes of 20-24 m2 for students and young people that have been built en masse by market parties in recent years (see elsewhere on this website). Tenants in these small independent homes are eligible for rent allowance, which means they can still pay the rent of around €700 (based on the rental points).


The room rental category is listed separately. This is sometimes included in the social rental housing stock and sometimes not.


  Medium-priced rental corporations and market parties
This sector does not (yet) exist legally, but is based on agreements between the relevant municipality, housing associations and private landlords. The medium-priced rental sector concerns homes with a rent between €763 and €1069 per month (amounts in 2022). The government has submitted a bill to parliament to give this medium-priced rent a legal basis through adjustments to the rental points system.

 

   Free sector rental
Officially, these are all rental properties above the 'liberalization limit'; the rent-
limit based on the rental points system/ home valuation system
sel (WWS). In 20223 this limit will be €808 per month;

  

   Owner-occupied homes
Cheap owner-occupied homes (below the WOZ value of €188,000 in 2020) are not found in Amsterdam and only to a small extent in the MRA. Affordable owner-occupied homes, i.e. affordable for middle incomes (up to more than twice the average, about €80,000 gross in 2021) are often translated into homes below the limit for obtaining a National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG). The NHG limit was €355,000 in 2022 and will be €405,000 in 2023.
Roughly estimated, owner-occupied homes from the overview above with a value of up to €296,000 (WOZ 2020) are listed below. Especially when we include the phenomenon of outbidding. This would mean that 14% of owner-occupied homes for middle incomes are accessible in Amsterdam, and 25% in the MRA. The majority of owner-occupied homes in both Amsterdam and the MRA are only accessible to higher incomes.
The supply of owner-occupied homes in Amsterdam is fairly stable: around 10,800 homes in 2017; in 2021 around 11,500. The average purchase price in Amsterdam in the 4th quarter of 2021 was €657,000; in North Holland this was €549,000 (Brokers in Amsterdam 2022).

Dynamics on the Amsterdam housing market

 

Despite  the general picture that the Amsterdam housing market is locked, 70,000 to 80,000 people settle in Amsterdam every year. In 2022 this was 88,000 people.Is the Amsterdam housing market still accessible?

With a more or less equal size of the housing market, this is only possible if large numbers of residents also leave the city. What is the moving dynamic like? Can people settle in Amsterdam or the region? And can they stay there?
The study by OIS (2021) shows that the moving dynamics in the private rented sector are much higher than in other sectors, and that tenants in this sector are much more likely to have a temporary lease contract, according to OIS (2021). For example, the following is stated about this (OIS 2021, 3):

 

The relocation dynamics in Amsterdam are still relatively high, despite the long waiting times for social rental homes and the limited supply in the owner-occupied sector. This is mainly attributable to the strong relocation dynamics in the private rented sector. More than half (55%) of recent occupations take place in a private rental home, while the share of this sector in the housing stock is less than one third. The private rental sector often works with temporary rental contracts, which are legally allowed for 2 years. 42 percent of those who recently moved in the private rental sector have such a temporary rental contract.

 

The price of housing: shift to the expensive segment
Figure 4.1 shows that the expensive rent and purchase of the Amsterdam residential
market has more than doubled in 10 years: from 18% to 39%. The pay-
The re share (for low and middle incomes) has therefore fallen from 82% to 61%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free Sector housing

The housing association homes in this sector are almost all medium-priced rental homes.
The share of expensive private rental homes (rent above €1042) is between 2017
- 2021 in Amsterdam increased from 11% to 19% of the total housing stock.

In the MRA this rose from 5% to 9% in the same period (WiA 2021; WiMRA 2021).

 

 

 

Table 4.2 shows that the free sector share has become almost three times as large; we see an increase from 11% to 29.7%. This is mainly because the private rented sector has now become largely free sector (medium and expensive): this went from 29% to 63.1% of the private rented sector.

 

Development of the housing stock by ownership
Figure 4.2 shows the housing stock by different ownership sectors: owner-occupied housing, housing association housing and private rental housing. We see a double trend: in this figure a growth of the private rental sector (from 22.5% in 2011 to 30.5% in 2021) of the entire housing stock in Amsterdam, and within that (table 4.2) a growth of the private sector share .

 

Housing market segments and income groups
For the first time in many decades, the share of social housing in Amsterdam is smaller than the group that is dependent on it (see figure 4.3). Homes with a low rent and purchase price are affordable for people with a gross annual income of up to €40,024. Homes with a medium-priced rental and purchase price are affordable for people with a gross annual income of €40,024 to €63,237 (amounts 2021 from WiA, 2021).

 

 

Jaap Draaisma, June 2023

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