Domestic departure from Amsterdam by foreigners

 

A large part of the internationals who settle in Amsterdam leave within a few years. Do they return to their country of origin or do they move on to a place of residence elsewhere in the Netherlands?

 

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At our request, O+S has provided figures on domestic departures from Amsterdam by people with a foreign nationality.

Domestic departures are broken down into the region (the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area – MRA) and the rest of the Netherlands.

These are figures for the period 2000 – 2022.

It concerns the 10 most important nationalities in terms of intake in Amsterdam of the last 7 years (2015-2022).

The figures for 2014 and 2015 cannot be used due to technical circumstances

 

I distinguish between within the EU and outside the EU

Due to residency requirements. Non-EU citizens must meet special requirements to be allowed to settle here.

Initially, this location is temporary.

This can only be extended under special circumstances/conditions.

There are special, strict requirements for permanent establishment.

It is therefore not a matter of course for people with a non-EU nationality that they stay in Amsterdam. The assumption is that the majority of immigrants with a non-EU nationality will move abroad again after a few years from Amsterdam.

Moving from Amsterdam to another place in the MRA or the rest of the Netherlands is not very self-evident for this group.

 

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I. Domestic departure of residents of Amsterdam with non-EU nationality

 

USA, Brazil, China, India, Russia approx. are not EU; first separately then together

By nationality to MRA and the rest of NL

(still relate to departure abroad of the same group)

 

USA

To MRA: from under 100 leavers between 2000-2016; then annual growth above 200 (2021: 204)

To rest of NL: fluctuates between 20 and 96 between 2000 and 2016; above 100 from 2017 and up to 153 annually until 2021.

Conclusion: Departure to MRA slightly, but not much, larger than to the rest of NL .

Very small numbers compared to American residents in Amsterdam (2019: 6971; 2021: 7396)

 

Brazil

To MRA: among 55 leavers between 2000-2016; then annual growth to 188 (2020 and 2021)

To the rest of NL: slight increase from 6 in 2000 to 67 in 2021

Conclusion: More departures to MRA than to the rest of NL: roughly 2-3 times as much.

Very small numbers In relation to the number of Brazilians in Amsterdam: 2019: 2233; 2021: 2564

 

Chinese:

Towards MRA: Slow gradual growth in the number of departures from 2000 to now: since 2017 above 200 per year.  2021: 230

To the rest of NL: slight growth from 2000; above 100 per year after 2016; in 2021 above 200, ie 201

Conclusion: Departure to MRA and the rest of NL about the same, both in terms of growth and numbers.

Are small numbers In relation to the number of Chinese in Amsterdam: 2019: 3304; 2021: 3681

 

India:

To MRA: no clear pattern: 2011 and 2012 around 450 departures per year; 2018 and 2019 above 1000 departures; 2020 and 2021 (the corona years) around 860.

To the rest of NL: Until 2016, low numbers (below 53), except in 2009-2012 with numbers from 133 to 387. From 2016, larger numbers (in the 200 and 300), with 620 as an outlier in 2019.

Conclusion: More departures to MRA than to the rest of NL; roughly twice as much.

In relation to the number of people with Indian nationality in Amsterdam: 2019: 4422; 2021: 4465. Very high! In 2019, approximately 1600 Indians will leave for MRA + NL = more than 1/3 of the total population with Indian nationality.

The massive departure (after a massive influx) of Indians from Amsterdam in recent years is therefore not only a departure abroad, especially India, but also to a large extent the departure to the region and the rest of the Netherlands.

The very short duration of living of Indians in Amsterdam, which has fallen to 2.1 years as of 1-1-2022 (see chapter Living duration), is therefore not only due to returning to India.

Remarkable because it concerns non-EU citizens who generally have a temporary residence permit.

Indians mainly come to Amsterdam for work in IT; It has been agreed between the municipality of Amsterdam and the employers in the Zuidas that these IT specialists may temporarily register at the work address upon arrival in Amsterdam. Many of them will subsequently find accommodation outside of Amsterdam, especially in Amstelveen.

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Russia (incl. Soviet Union):

MRA: very low until 2017 (a few tens per year) Annual growth from 2017, to almost 200 in 2021.

To the rest of NL: Very low until 2016 (4 – 32 per year). As of 2016, it fluctuates to 88 in 2021.

Conclusion: after 2016 clearly more to MRA than to the rest of NL; twice as much.

Very low In relation to number of people with Russian nationality: 2019: 2375; 2021: 2886

 

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Very rough thoughts on possible background of the conclusion by nationality:

USA nationality will mainly concern Blue Card holders and investors/entrepreneurs. If you mainly leave for abroad (USA?): no distinction between MRA or NL within NL.

 

Brazil: especially employees at the bottom of the labor market. So stays in Amsterdam or at least in the MRA

 

China: especially students and trade/industry;

 

India: especially IT / Blue Card (?) ; Despite an enormous influx of people of Indian nationality in Amsterdam, the Indian population in Amsterdam hardly grew. Because they leave very quickly. Not only abroad (back to India?) but also to the MRA and NL. Because IT is in Amsterdam, there are twice as many departures to MRA than to NL.

 

Russia: especially IT and refugees.

 

It doesn't seem useful or possible to make a comment about all Non-EU people from the numbers.

 

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II. Domestic departure of Amsterdammers with EU nationality

 

The British are still included in this, because Brexit-effects  only became concrete in 2021.

 

British nationality

By MRA: fairly stable between 2000 and 2016: around 125 per year; 2016-2021 roughly doubled: between 200 and 350

To the rest of NL: fairly stable between 2000 and 2016, between 50 and 75. Above 200 from 2016, with 231 as the highest number in 2021

Conclusions: slightly more to MRA than to rest of NL.

Number of Britons in Amsterdam in 2019: 10,913; 2021: 11,764

 

German

To MRA: between 2000 and 2016 fluctuates between 50 and 110. After 2016 roughly doubled to max. 240 in 2020

To the rest of NL: fluctuates between 50 and 90 between 2000 – 2016. More than doubled after 2016 to max. 227 in 2021

Conclusions: Same development and numbers to MRA and the rest of NL. Only after 2016 did the Germans “discover” the MRA and the rest of NL and some settlement took place there.

Number of Germans in Amsterdam in 2019: 8696; in 2021: 9487

 

French

To MRA: fluctuates between 30 and 60 between 2000 – 2016. After 2016, tripled to max. 185 in 2021

To the rest of NL: fluctuates between 20 and 40 in the period 2000 – 2016. Gradual increase after 2016 to 132 in 2021 (tripling)

Conclusions: Slightly more departure to the MRA than to the rest of NL. Only after 2016 do the French "discover" the MRA and the rest of NL and some establishment takes place there.

Number of French in Amsterdam in 2019: 6528; in 2021: 7802

 

Italian

To MRA: slight increase from about 35 to about 70 between 2000 and 2016. Rapid growth after 2016 to a maximum of 392 in 2021 (many 100% higher)

To the rest of NL: fluctuates between 15 and 60 in the period 2000 – 2016. After 2016, growth to a maximum of 254 in 2021 (increase comparable to that for MRA)

Conclusion: Slightly more departure to the MRA than to the rest of NL. Only after 2016 did the Italians “discover” the MRA and the rest of NL and some establishment took place there.

Number of Italians in Amsterdam: 2019: 9,500; 2021: 11,280

 

Polish

To MRA: growing from 3 in 2000 to 100 in 2011. Since then, slight growth to around 180 in the years 2019-2020-2021.

To the rest of NL: from nil in the early 2000s to around 50 around 2016. Since then, growth to the highest number of 125 in 2021.

Conclusion: Slightly more departure to the MRA than to the rest of NL.

Number of Poles in Amsterdam in 2019: 3711; in 2021: 4033

 

Spanish

To MRA: fluctuates between roughly 30 and 70 between 2000 – 2016. After 2016 above 100 to max. 248 in 2021 (huge increase, but not as big as with Italian nationality)

To the rest of NL: fluctuates between roughly 20 and 50 between 2000 – 2016. After 2016 increase to max. 169 in 2020.

Conclusion: Clearly more departures to MRA than to the rest of NL.

Number of Spaniards in Amsterdam in 2019: 6160; in 2021: 7179

 

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General conclusions

• In general, this concerns very small numbers of foreigners who leave for the MRA or the rest of the Netherlands, only a few percent per nationality.

• Just like the Dutch, foreigners move more from Amsterdam to the MRA region than to the rest of the Netherlands.

• There is a clear difference per nationality in the extent to which people leave Amsterdam for the Netherlands and the extent to which this is to the MRA or to the rest of the Netherlands.

• It doesn't seem very useful to distinguish between the neighboring countries (British, German, French), Southern Europe (Italian and Spanish) and Eastern Europe (Polish and Russian) :

 

• Departure from Amsterdam to the Netherlands (MRA or the rest of NL) seems to depend mainly on study or work.
  The assumption is that students will not, if at all, settle outside the MRA

 

• Dutch nationality:
  Between 2000 and 2021 a gradual increase in the number of departures to the MRA.
  A striking deviation from the previous crisis years 2008 – 2013 in which the number of Dutch departures fell sharply (from 15,320 in 2007 to the lowest point of 11,503 departures in 2013).
  The departure was the highest 20,415 in 2020 and approximately the same 20,211 in the 2nd corona year.
  
  Nationality cannot be linked 1 on 1 to income level and social security.
  However, it seems that nationalities that are more associated with the lower end of the labor market do not or hardly leave the MRA.
  Mid-segment labor market: according to the rest of NL
  Blue Card, IT specialists, entrepreneurial investors: to the rest of NL

 

And further

Are there any UvA and VU figures for foreign students by nationality?

 

 

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Jaap Draaisma 

HvA Lecturership in Metropolitan Affairs      

Amsterdam June 17, 2022